Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2809 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2809 FLL 07:00 → ORD 09:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 663 FLL 11:00 → ORD 13:39 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2809 United	FLL 07:00	ORD 09:30	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 2738 American	FLL 08:43	ORD 11:07	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 1755 United Flight history →	FLL 12:26	ORD 14:55	17%	6%	0.7%	87%
UA 651 United Flight history →	FLL 19:37	ORD 22:20	20%	8%	0.7%	66%
AA 1443 American Flight history →	FLL 13:25	ORD 16:00	23%	9%	1.0%	89%worse than usual
F9 2206 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 12:13	ORD 14:50	24%	10%	1.5%	69%
UA 403 United Flight history →	FLL 16:20	ORD 19:00	24%	8%	0.8%	52%
B6 663 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:00	ORD 13:39	28%	10%	2.0%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	FLL 16:46 → ATL 18:47DL 1413	52m Atlanta	ATL 19:39 → ORD 20:51DL 1139	5h 05m	80%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON