Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2089 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2089 FLL 06:57 → PHL 09:54 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest B6 376 FLL 20:59 → PHL 23:53 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2089 American Flight history →	FLL 06:57	PHL 09:54	7%	3%	1.4%	70%
AA 444 American Flight history →	FLL 08:40	PHL 11:37	9%	3%	1.1%	95%
AA 1333 American Flight history →	FLL 10:48	PHL 13:57	13%	5%	1.0%	87%
B6 2276 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 10:10	PHL 13:14	18%	9%	1.3%	74%
AA 948 American	FLL 19:59	PHL 22:58	20%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 1465 American	FLL 15:29	PHL 18:26	22%	9%	0.9%	no record
F9 2932 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 13:09	PHL 16:05	29%	11%	1.1%	66%
B6 376 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	PHL 23:53	31%	14%	1.4%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON