Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:23, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1222 American	FLL 17:55	PHX 19:56	21%	8%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 07:53 → LAX 10:05DL 800	3h 41m Los Angeles	LAX 13:46 → PHX 15:21DL 3894 · flown by SkyWest	10h 28m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	59m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348	6h 38m	97%	87%
American Details →	FLL 05:57 → CLT 08:06AA 1474	1h 35m Charlotte	CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986	8h 07m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631	3h 51m Detroit	DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813	10h 50m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	8h 30m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	FLL 07:40 → ATL 09:33DL 1326	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366	9h 38m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	FLL 15:32 → ATL 17:42DL 1341	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 20:36 → PHX 21:34DL 929	9h 02m	98%	82%
American Details →	FLL 07:44 → CLT 09:53AA 2087	1h 44m Charlotte	CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588	8h 12m	94%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	FLL 11:23 → IAH 13:29UA 699	46m Houston	IAH 14:15 → PHX 15:13UA 1798	6h 50m	66%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON