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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, B6 1196 at 20:32, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1196 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:32 PVD 23:44 32% 11% 1.2% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → PVD 12:29DL 2147 7h 06m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631 1h 29m Detroit DTW 10:25 → PVD 12:25DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest 6h 25m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → FLL 07:44 → CLT 09:53AA 2087 3h 47m Charlotte CLT 13:40 → PVD 15:58AA 2679 8h 14m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314 6h 33m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → FLL 12:08 → ATL 14:00DL 1271 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 17:40 → PVD 20:09DL 2659 8h 01m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → FLL 13:25 → ORD 16:00AA 1443 3h 14m Chicago ORD 19:14 → PVD 22:43AA 1293 9h 18m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → FLL 12:13 → IAD 14:49UA 1421 2h 31m Dulles IAD 17:20 → PVD 18:59UA 6112 · flown by Mesa 6h 46m 97% 75%
JetBlueDetails → FLL 10:00 → MCO 11:08B6 2548 2h 54m Orlando MCO 14:02 → PVD 17:08B6 1075 7h 08m 97% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON