Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: B6 1626 at 07:58 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–30%.

Safest bet that day B6 1626 FLL 07:58 → RDU 10:14 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2626 FLL 19:15 → RDU 21:24 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1626 JetBlue	FLL 07:58	RDU 10:14	10%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 1018 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:00	RDU 17:12	18%	6%	0.7%	75%
F9 2178 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 11:43	RDU 14:06	19%	7%	0.9%	71%
B6 2626 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 19:15	RDU 21:24	30%	15%	1.0%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON