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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:33, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Richmond on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650 5h 23m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → FLL 07:40 → ATL 09:33DL 1326 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 12:32 → RIC 14:15DL 3152 6h 35m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → FLL 05:57 → CLT 08:06AA 1474 2h 23m Charlotte CLT 10:29 → RIC 11:48AA 5119 · flown by PSA 5h 51m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214 6h 27m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → FLL 06:57 → PHL 09:54AA 2089 3h 18m Philadelphia PHL 13:12 → RIC 14:35AA 5843 · flown by Piedmont 7h 38m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → FLL 13:28 → ATL 15:32DL 1512 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 18:33 → RIC 20:16DL 1263 6h 48m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → FLL 12:08 → ATL 14:00DL 1271 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348 6h 45m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → FLL 09:00 → IAH 10:45UA 722 1h 18m Houston IAH 12:03 → RIC 16:11UA 4057 · flown by Mesa 7h 11m 94% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → FLL 12:08 → ATL 14:00DL 1271 46m Atlanta ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214 4h 15m 73% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON