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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:23, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 9h 07m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → FLL 07:53 → LAX 10:05DL 800 2h 52m Los Angeles LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 9h 19m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → FLL 08:20 → SEA 11:49DL 356 2h 56m Seattle SEA 14:45 → SJC 17:05DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest 11h 45m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → FLL 15:32 → ATL 17:42DL 1341 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 10h 17m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → FLL 12:08 → ATL 14:00DL 1271 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 9h 44m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18UA 1311 1h 12m Denver DEN 11:30 → SJC 13:09UA 1256 8h 09m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → FLL 10:22 → DEN 12:52UA 204 3h 03m Denver DEN 15:55 → SJC 17:35UA 1883 10h 13m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → FLL 07:28 → DFW 09:43AA 1712 2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:58 → SJC 13:56AA 2834 9h 28m 97% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON