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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18UA 1311 3h 07m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 9h 57m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → FLL 10:22 → DEN 12:52UA 204 3h 22m Denver DEN 16:14 → SNA 17:54UA 1497 10h 32m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → FLL 15:32 → ATL 17:42DL 1341 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 9h 53m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314 3h 36m Houston IAH 12:21 → SNA 14:06UA 1533 10h 06m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 8h 58m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → FLL 07:28 → DFW 09:43AA 1712 2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:21 → SNA 13:48AA 2465 9h 20m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → FLL 12:13 → IAD 14:49UA 1421 2h 57m Dulles IAD 17:46 → SNA 20:17UA 2319 11h 04m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → FLL 12:08 → ATL 14:00DL 1271 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012 9h 52m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON