Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3092 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3092 Southwest	FLL 05:51	STL 07:47	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1933 Southwest	FLL 19:07	STL 21:03	27%	7%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400	5h 20m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631	3h 32m Detroit	DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371	8h 05m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	6h 44m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 15:17 → STL 16:06DL 543	7h 10m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	FLL 11:27 → DTW 14:26DL 655	2h 19m Detroit	DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822	6h 57m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	FLL 13:28 → ATL 15:32DL 1512	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 19:16 → STL 20:05DL 2833	7h 37m	100%	83%
United Details →	FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314	3h 20m Houston	IAH 12:05 → STL 14:34UA 2042	8h 34m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	FLL 12:08 → ATL 14:00DL 1271	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393	6h 45m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON