Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 408 at 09:21 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 408 FLL 09:21 → TPA 10:32 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1905 FLL 19:45 → TPA 20:57 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 408 Southwest	FLL 09:21	TPA 10:32	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
B6 1005 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:59	TPA 13:12	21%	10%	1.0%	62%
B6 1905 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 19:45	TPA 20:57	30%	16%	1.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON