Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 1237 at 05:20, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1237 Delta Flight history →	FSD 05:20	ATL 08:53	9%	3%	0.6%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Sioux Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	FSD 06:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5701 · flown by SkyWest	3h 22m Denver	DEN 10:15 → ATL 15:30UA 2806	8h 30m	98%	85%
United Details →	FSD 13:18 → DEN 14:10UA 5492 · flown by SkyWest	3h 45m Denver	DEN 17:55 → ATL 23:11UA 248	8h 53m	99%	82%
United Details →	FSD 07:35 → ORD 09:31UA 1857	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 12:18 → ATL 15:26UA 2779	6h 51m	99%	82%
United Details →	FSD 11:35 → DEN 12:25UA 5319 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Denver	DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671	5h 55m	90%	75%
American Details →	FSD 06:57 → ORD 08:44AA 4977 · flown by SkyWest	1h 27m Chicago	ORD 10:11 → ATL 13:26AA 2910	5h 29m	93%	74%
American Details →	FSD 12:49 → DFW 15:11AA 2872	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:31 → ATL 20:57AA 3212	7h 08m	94%	65%
United Details →	FSD 15:07 → ORD 17:05UA 4441 · flown by GoJet	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 18:20 → ATL 21:41UA 1398	5h 34m	82%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON