Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 5701 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 5701 FSD 06:00 → DEN 06:53 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OO 5296 FSD 18:49 → DEN 19:34 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5701 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 06:00	DEN 06:53	8%	4%	0.7%	91%
UA 5492 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 13:18	DEN 14:10	9%	4%	0.7%	92%
UA 5319 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 11:35	DEN 12:25	11%	5%	0.7%	87%
UA 5848 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 17:05	DEN 18:13	17%	6%	0.7%	68%
UA 1849 United	FSD 09:37	DEN 10:26	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 5296 SkyWest	FSD 18:49	DEN 19:34	18%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON