Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4977 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 4977 FSD 06:57 → ORD 08:44 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest OO 5320 FSD 15:07 → ORD 16:54 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4977 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 06:57	ORD 08:44	14%	7%	1.4%	84%
UA 1857 United Flight history →	FSD 07:35	ORD 09:31	17%	5%	1.3%	80%
OO 4992 SkyWest	FSD 18:53	ORD 20:57	23%	11%	1.5%	no record
OO 4991 SkyWest	FSD 12:02	ORD 13:49	24%	11%	1.8%	no record
OO 5353 SkyWest	FSD 18:35	ORD 20:22	29%	13%	1.9%	no record
OO 5320 SkyWest	FSD 15:07	ORD 16:54	31%	12%	1.7%	no record
UA 4439 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	FSD 11:16	ORD 13:14	17%	9%	1.4%	83%
UA 4441 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	FSD 15:07	ORD 17:05	30%	12%	8.3%	70%
UA 4467 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	FSD 18:28	ORD 20:26	40%	20%	8.4%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON