Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 6442 SkyWest	FSD 08:03	PHX 09:05	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 4966 SkyWest	FSD 14:07	PHX 15:04	17%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Sioux Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	FSD 06:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5701 · flown by SkyWest	2h 57m Denver	DEN 09:50 → PHX 10:55UA 1782	6h 55m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	FSD 05:20 → ATL 08:53DL 1237	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	8h 43m	97%	83%
United Details →	FSD 11:35 → DEN 12:25UA 5319 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Denver	DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254	7h 00m	97%	81%
United Details →	FSD 07:35 → ORD 09:31UA 1857	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 11:01 → PHX 12:49UA 2164	7h 14m	95%	77%
American Details →	FSD 06:57 → ORD 08:44AA 4977 · flown by SkyWest	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 10:36 → PHX 12:27AA 2192	7h 30m	96%	76%
United Details →	FSD 11:16 → ORD 13:14UA 4439 · flown by GoJet	2h 48m Chicago	ORD 16:02 → PHX 17:53UA 2053	8h 37m	96%	73%
American Details →	FSD 12:49 → DFW 15:11AA 2872	3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:54 → PHX 19:35AA 3110	8h 46m	98%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON