Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 3404 at 10:40, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3404 GEG 10:40 → BOI 13:01 · 7% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3404 SkyWest	GEG 10:40	BOI 13:01	7%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 2031 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 08:53	BOI 11:02	0%	0%	0.0%	100%
AS 2198 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 06:00	BOI 08:07	4%	4%	7.7%	96%
AS 2264 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 16:05	BOI 18:13	25%	2%	1.9%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON