Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1935 GEG 06:31 → DEN 09:49 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1255 GEG 13:41 → DEN 16:57 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1935 Southwest	GEG 06:31	DEN 09:49	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1234 United Flight history →	GEG 05:00	DEN 08:20	5%	1%	0.6%	96%
OO 5587 SkyWest	GEG 16:12	DEN 19:37	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4301 Southwest	GEG 14:46	DEN 18:06	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1255 United Flight history →	GEG 13:41	DEN 16:57	13%	3%	0.5%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON