Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 484 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 484 American Flight history →	GEG 05:16	DFW 10:55	7%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 1381 American Flight history →	GEG 12:46	DFW 18:42	21%	6%	0.7%	59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Spokane). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	1h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → DFW 13:30DL 2800	6h 10m	98%	88%
United Details →	GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234	1h 15m Denver	DEN 09:35 → DFW 12:39UA 1350	5h 39m	97%	86%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710	1h 08m Portland	PDX 07:18 → DFW 13:08AS 376	6h 08m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	GEG 07:00 → MSP 11:52DL 1615	2h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 14:47 → DFW 17:16DL 2971	8h 16m	99%	85%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon	1h 30m Seattle	SEA 07:45 → DFW 13:49AS 340	6h 42m	100%	81%
United Details →	GEG 11:09 → ORD 17:00UA 5623 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673	9h 27m	99%	80%
American Details →	GEG 06:38 → PHX 09:41AA 2697	2h 29m Phoenix	PHX 12:10 → DFW 16:38AA 2905	8h 00m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m Seattle	SEA 17:55 → DFW 23:55DL 870	8h 55m	100%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON