Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3696 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 06:20	LAX 09:13	8%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 3794 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 16:16	LAX 19:00	12%	3%	0.6%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	3h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	7h 07m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	GEG 07:00 → MSP 11:52DL 1615	1h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 13:10 → LAX 14:52DL 2974	7h 52m	96%	87%
American Details →	GEG 06:38 → PHX 09:41AA 2697	1h 16m Phoenix	PHX 10:57 → LAX 12:35AA 2027	5h 57m	96%	85%
United Details →	GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234	1h 42m Denver	DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405	6h 34m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218	3h 25m Seattle	SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769	7h 30m	96%	82%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710	50m Portland	PDX 07:00 → LAX 09:37AS 581	4h 37m	92%	81%
Delta Details →	GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest	3h 05m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → LAX 20:13DL 2861	7h 13m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon	3h 40m Seattle	SEA 09:55 → LAX 12:27AS 1306	7h 20m	100%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	GEG 11:40 → SEA 12:50AS 2262 · flown by Horizon	48m Seattle	SEA 13:38 → LAX 16:25AS 696	4h 45m	70%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON