Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1615 Delta Flight history →	GEG 07:00	MSP 11:52	6%	1%	0.5%	93%
DL 2437 Delta Flight history →	GEG 14:26	MSP 19:15	10%	2%	0.5%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Spokane). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	3h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	7h 20m	99%	91%
United Details →	GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234	1h 20m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	5h 40m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	GEG 06:20 → LAX 09:13DL 3696 · flown by SkyWest	2h 02m Los Angeles	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	8h 30m	99%	86%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon	2h 20m Seattle	SEA 08:35 → MSP 13:57AS 555	6h 50m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	GEG 07:00 → SEA 08:22DL 3790 · flown by SkyWest	3h 50m Seattle	SEA 12:12 → MSP 17:25DL 536	8h 25m	97%	84%
United Details →	GEG 13:41 → DEN 16:57UA 1255	1h 48m Denver	DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076	6h 09m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	GEG 11:30 → SEA 12:54DL 3824 · flown by SkyWest	1h 36m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → MSP 19:54DL 942	6h 24m	93%	80%
Alaska Details →	GEG 08:26 → SEA 09:31AS 320	2h 52m Seattle	SEA 12:23 → MSP 17:29AS 772	7h 03m	100%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON