Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2248 at 11:26, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2248 Southwest	GEG 11:26	OAK 13:40	7%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251	3h 41m Portland	PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon	6h 41m	100%	97%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	2h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	6h 26m	99%	94%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon	49m Seattle	SEA 07:04 → OAK 09:06AS 735	3h 59m	96%	77%
Alaska Details →	GEG 06:57 → SEA 08:02AS 360	2h 59m Seattle	SEA 11:01 → OAK 13:03AS 533	6h 06m	99%	68%
Alaska Details →	GEG 11:40 → SEA 12:50AS 2262 · flown by Horizon	3h 51m Seattle	SEA 16:41 → OAK 18:42AS 1328	7h 02m	100%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	GEG 14:39 → SEA 15:49AS 2119 · flown by Horizon	52m Seattle	SEA 16:41 → OAK 18:42AS 1328	4h 03m	56%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON