tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: UA 5623 at 11:09 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5623 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → GEG 11:09 ORD 17:00 20% 7% 1.1% 67%
AA 677 American Flight history → GEG 14:14 ORD 20:09 35% 8% 0.8% 53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Spokane). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329 6h 15m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Seattle SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108 8h 38m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → GEG 07:00 → MSP 11:52DL 1615 1h 33m Minneapolis MSP 13:25 → ORD 15:05DL 1533 6h 05m 97% 81%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon 2h 19m Seattle SEA 08:34 → ORD 14:46AS 265 7h 39m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → GEG 06:20 → LAX 09:13DL 3696 · flown by SkyWest 2h 11m Los Angeles LAX 11:24 → ORD 17:35DL 2368 9h 15m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → GEG 06:38 → PHX 09:41AA 2697 2h 34m Phoenix PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338 9h 30m 98% 74%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710 50m Portland PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13AS 324 6h 13m 92% 74%
AmericanDetails → GEG 05:16 → DFW 10:55AA 484 2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988 8h 35m 98% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → GEG 08:26 → SEA 09:31AS 320 58m Seattle SEA 10:29 → ORD 16:44AS 429 6h 18m 66% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON