Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4361 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 4361 GEG 06:01 → PHX 08:42 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 540 GEG 13:49 → PHX 16:36 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4361 Southwest	GEG 06:01	PHX 08:42	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 2697 American Flight history →	GEG 06:38	PHX 09:41	7%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 540 American Flight history →	GEG 13:49	PHX 16:36	16%	6%	0.6%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON