tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3037 SkyWest GEG 05:59 SAN 08:51 14% 5% 1.0% no record
WN 833 Southwest GEG 12:16 SAN 15:03 22% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440 3h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 6h 48m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → GEG 07:00 → SEA 08:22DL 3790 · flown by SkyWest 3h 52m Seattle SEA 12:14 → SAN 15:16DL 2572 8h 16m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → GEG 11:30 → SEA 12:54DL 3824 · flown by SkyWest 2h 21m Seattle SEA 15:15 → SAN 18:05DL 2613 6h 35m 95% 76%
AmericanDetails → GEG 06:38 → PHX 09:41AA 2697 1h 08m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → SAN 12:25AA 2122 5h 47m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234 2h 55m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 7h 41m 98% 76%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710 3h 02m Portland PDX 09:12 → SAN 11:40AS 721 6h 40m 99% 76%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251 3h 42m Portland PDX 17:34 → SAN 20:01AS 667 7h 19m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218 3h 05m Seattle SEA 09:45 → SAN 12:39DL 2533 7h 14m 96% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → GEG 14:39 → SEA 15:49AS 2119 · flown by Horizon 1h 09m Seattle SEA 16:58 → SAN 19:37AS 635 4h 58m 75% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON