Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2218 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 2218 GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 320 GEG 08:26 → SEA 09:31 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2218 Delta Flight history →	GEG 05:25	SEA 06:40	6%	1%	0.6%	95%
AS 534 Alaska	GEG 05:51	SEA 06:56	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 4145 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 16:03	SEA 17:22	14%	4%	0.6%	92%
DL 3790 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 07:00	SEA 08:22	14%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 3754 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 13:00	SEA 14:25	14%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 3824 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 11:30	SEA 12:54	16%	4%	0.6%	90%
OO 3143 SkyWest	GEG 12:15	SEA 13:34	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 360 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 06:57	SEA 08:02	21%	3%	0.7%	91%worse than usual
OO 156 SkyWest	GEG 09:20	SEA 10:40	23%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 455 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 13:33	SEA 14:38	30%	4%	0.7%	83%worse than usual
AS 320 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 08:26	SEA 09:31	30%	3%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
AS 2065 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 05:07	SEA 06:15	4%	0%	0.0%	96%
AS 2262 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 11:40	SEA 12:50	8%	2%	3.8%	92%
AS 2350 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 15:49	SEA 17:00	8%	8%	0.0%	92%
AS 2069 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 09:06	SEA 10:18	21%	3%	0.9%	79%
AS 2119 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 14:39	SEA 15:49	35%	8%	0.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON