tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: OO 5471 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 5471 SkyWest GEG 06:04 SFO 08:22 10% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 5217 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → GEG 12:37 SFO 15:01 21% 11% 0.6% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440 2h 58m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 6h 43m 99% 75%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710 1h 09m Portland PDX 07:19 → SFO 09:16AS 526 4h 16m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → GEG 11:30 → SEA 12:54DL 3824 · flown by SkyWest 1h 36m Seattle SEA 14:30 → SFO 16:49DL 3707 · flown by SkyWest 5h 19m 93% 74%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 08:26 → SEA 09:31AS 320 2h 11m Seattle SEA 11:42 → SFO 14:04AS 655 5h 38m 100% 71%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 11:40 → SEA 12:50AS 2262 · flown by Horizon 3h 46m Seattle SEA 16:36 → SFO 18:48AS 1385 7h 08m 100% 70%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon 48m Seattle SEA 07:03 → SFO 09:20AS 725 4h 13m 95% 69%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251 57m Portland PDX 14:49 → SFO 16:40AS 236 3h 58m 87% 69%
DeltaDetails → GEG 06:20 → LAX 09:13DL 3696 · flown by SkyWest 2h 49m Los Angeles LAX 12:02 → SFO 13:25DL 689 7h 05m 99% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → GEG 19:41 → PDX 20:50AS 2407 · flown by Horizon 55m Portland PDX 21:45 → SFO 23:36AS 2112 · flown by Horizon 3h 55m 73% 46%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 14:39 → SEA 15:49AS 2119 · flown by Horizon 47m Seattle SEA 16:36 → SFO 18:48AS 1385 4h 09m 48% 34%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 06:57 → SEA 08:02AS 360 51m Seattle SEA 08:53 → SFO 11:09AS 528 4h 12m 58% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON