Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 971 at 10:36, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 971 Southwest	GEG 10:36	SJC 13:02	5%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	3h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	7h 15m	99%	90%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710	1h 05m Portland	PDX 07:15 → SJC 09:09AS 2080 · flown by Horizon	4h 09m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	GEG 06:20 → LAX 09:13DL 3696 · flown by SkyWest	3h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	7h 52m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 08:30 → SJC 10:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	5h 30m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	GEG 13:30 → SLC 16:14DL 1452	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest	4h 56m	93%	84%
Delta Details →	GEG 11:30 → SEA 12:54DL 3824 · flown by SkyWest	1h 51m Seattle	SEA 14:45 → SJC 17:05DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest	5h 35m	94%	82%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon	49m Seattle	SEA 07:04 → SJC 09:09AS 1341	4h 02m	96%	81%
Alaska Details →	GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251	3h 48m Portland	PDX 17:40 → SJC 19:32AS 2113 · flown by Horizon	6h 50m	100%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	GEG 11:40 → SEA 12:50AS 2262 · flown by Horizon	49m Seattle	SEA 13:39 → SJC 15:44AS 657	4h 04m	74%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON