Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1942 at 05:31, with a 2% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1942 Southwest	GEG 05:31	SMF 07:33	2%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	3h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 56m	99%	90%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710	3h 08m Portland	PDX 09:18 → SMF 10:54AS 1709	5h 54m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Seattle	SEA 17:00 → SMF 18:57DL 4043 · flown by SkyWest	5h 57m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218	3h 30m Seattle	SEA 10:10 → SMF 12:17DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest	6h 52m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	GEG 11:30 → SEA 12:54DL 3824 · flown by SkyWest	1h 46m Seattle	SEA 14:40 → SMF 16:39DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	5h 09m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	GEG 13:30 → SLC 16:14DL 1452	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:35 → SMF 18:16DL 2585	4h 46m	95%	81%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon	59m Seattle	SEA 07:14 → SMF 09:02AS 1461	3h 55m	96%	81%
Alaska Details →	GEG 06:57 → SEA 08:02AS 360	1h 51m Seattle	SEA 09:53 → SMF 11:42AS 763	4h 45m	95%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON