Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 2019 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 15:35	SNA 18:19	54%	15%	0.0%	46%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234	3h 00m Denver	DEN 11:20 → SNA 12:51UA 1320	7h 51m	98%	83%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710	50m Portland	PDX 07:00 → SNA 09:37AS 1404	4h 37m	92%	82%
American Details →	GEG 06:38 → PHX 09:41AA 2697	1h 33m Phoenix	PHX 11:14 → SNA 12:53AA 1656	6h 15m	97%	82%
American Details →	GEG 05:16 → DFW 10:55AA 484	1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:21 → SNA 13:48AA 2465	8h 32m	97%	81%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon	2h 03m Seattle	SEA 08:18 → SNA 11:15AS 759	6h 08m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	GEG 13:33 → SEA 14:38AS 455	2h 44m Seattle	SEA 17:22 → SNA 19:58AS 687	6h 25m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	GEG 09:06 → SEA 10:18AS 2069 · flown by Horizon	3h 44m Seattle	SEA 14:02 → SNA 16:54AS 773	7h 48m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	2h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → SNA 11:50DL 1835	6h 30m	99%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	GEG 09:06 → SEA 10:18AS 2069 · flown by Horizon	48m Seattle	SEA 11:06 → SNA 13:55AS 1357	4h 49m	55%	43%
Alaska Details →	GEG 13:33 → SEA 14:38AS 455	46m Seattle	SEA 15:24 → SNA 18:00AS 1475	4h 27m	31%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON