Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 4800 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 4800 GJT 05:30 → DEN 07:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 4635 GJT 15:15 → DEN 16:45 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4800 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 05:30	DEN 07:00	6%	4%	0.6%	86%
UA 1877 United Flight history →	GJT 07:00	DEN 08:22	6%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 4709 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 11:19	DEN 12:45	10%	6%	0.7%	84%
OO 4773 SkyWest	GJT 09:28	DEN 10:41	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 5755 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 18:10	DEN 19:39	17%	7%	0.7%	65%
UA 4635 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 15:15	DEN 16:45	19%	9%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON