Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 6431 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 08:35	PHX 09:20	14%	6%	0.6%	92%
OO 4996 SkyWest	GJT 11:46	PHX 12:30	15%	8%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Grand Junction). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GJT 07:34 → SLC 08:45DL 4230 · flown by SkyWest	2h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431	5h 38m	99%	87%
United Details →	GJT 05:30 → DEN 07:00UA 4800 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Denver	DEN 09:50 → PHX 10:55UA 1782	6h 25m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	GJT 11:11 → SLC 12:24DL 4246 · flown by SkyWest	2h 56m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:20 → PHX 16:04DL 1738	5h 53m	100%	85%
United Details →	GJT 07:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1877	3h 03m Denver	DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686	6h 25m	100%	84%
American Details →	GJT 06:26 → DFW 09:50AA 6414 · flown by SkyWest	1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:29 → PHX 12:14AA 359	6h 48m	98%	83%
United Details →	GJT 11:19 → DEN 12:45UA 4709 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Denver	DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254	6h 16m	99%	82%
United Details →	GJT 15:15 → DEN 16:45UA 4635 · flown by SkyWest	1h 45m Denver	DEN 18:30 → PHX 19:30UA 1507	5h 15m	92%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON