Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1945 at 05:46, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1945 Southwest	GRR 05:46	BWI 07:36	3%	1%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GRR 06:10 → ATL 08:14DL 2453	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	6h 51m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	GRR 11:34 → MSP 12:14DL 3990 · flown by SkyWest	2h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565	6h 41m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	GRR 05:30 → DTW 06:30DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor	3h 45m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546	6h 17m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	GRR 10:34 → DTW 11:33DL 3500 · flown by SkyWest	3h 32m Detroit	DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480	6h 07m	98%	85%
United Details →	GRR 07:10 → ORD 07:19UA 2099	3h 32m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653	6h 47m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	GRR 12:51 → ATL 14:52DL 2547	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → BWI 20:04DL 2928	7h 13m	99%	83%
United Details →	GRR 08:00 → DEN 08:54UA 2648	52m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	89%	78%
American Details →	GRR 07:01 → DFW 08:48AA 1561	1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:45 → BWI 15:02AA 2669	8h 01m	94%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	GRR 13:56 → ORD 14:05UA 2138	52m Chicago	ORD 14:57 → BWI 18:00UA 2737	4h 04m	59%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON