tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2492 American GRR 07:06 CLT 09:01 12% 3% 0.8% no record
AA 1384 American GRR 14:48 CLT 16:52 17% 5% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GRR 06:10 → ATL 08:14DL 2453 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → CLT 11:26DL 3190 5h 16m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → GRR 07:00 → MSP 07:32DL 2913 2h 58m Minneapolis MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819 6h 57m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → GRR 07:53 → ATL 09:56DL 2161 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157 5h 38m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → GRR 11:34 → MSP 12:14DL 3990 · flown by SkyWest 3h 01m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821 7h 15m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → GRR 07:10 → ORD 07:19UA 2099 3h 07m Chicago ORD 10:26 → CLT 13:50UA 3450 · flown by Republic 6h 40m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → GRR 10:34 → DTW 11:33DL 3500 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Detroit DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:55DL 1429 5h 21m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → GRR 12:51 → ATL 14:52DL 2547 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158 5h 28m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → GRR 13:45 → PHL 15:44AA 5614 · flown by PSA 3h 24m Philadelphia PHL 19:08 → CLT 21:09AA 2189 7h 24m 97% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → GRR 12:10 → DTW 13:13DL 5473 · flown by Endeavor 52m Detroit DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:55DL 1429 3h 45m 71% 60%
DeltaDetails → GRR 17:55 → DTW 18:59DL 5511 · flown by Endeavor 1h 06m Detroit DTW 20:05 → CLT 21:57DL 2352 4h 02m 71% 56%
AmericanDetails → GRR 13:16 → DFW 15:02AA 3167 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:59 → CLT 19:42AA 2013 6h 26m 70% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON