tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: OH 5187 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OH 5187 PSA GRR 06:03 DCA 07:52 13% 6% 1.5% no record
AA 5039 American flown by PSA Flight history → GRR 13:56 DCA 15:46 30% 9% 1.4% 56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → GRR 06:00 → ORD 06:17UA 4458 · flown by GoJet 1h 43m Chicago ORD 08:00 → DCA 11:06UA 1705 5h 06m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → GRR 06:10 → ATL 08:14DL 2453 1h 26m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 5h 17m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → GRR 07:00 → MSP 07:32DL 2913 2h 53m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983 6h 48m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → GRR 05:30 → DTW 06:30DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor 3h 30m Detroit DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476 5h 58m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → GRR 07:10 → ORD 07:19UA 2099 2h 41m Chicago ORD 10:00 → DCA 13:05UA 1904 5h 55m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → GRR 11:34 → MSP 12:14DL 3990 · flown by SkyWest 2h 23m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 6h 35m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → GRR 07:53 → ATL 09:56DL 2161 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:47DL 1798 4h 54m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → GRR 08:49 → ORD 08:57UA 1113 3h 48m Chicago ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752 7h 03m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → GRR 13:56 → ORD 14:05UA 2138 55m Chicago ORD 15:00 → DCA 18:12UA 1941 4h 16m 67% 51%
UnitedDetails → GRR 11:38 → ORD 11:58UA 4583 · flown by GoJet 47m Chicago ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752 4h 14m 58% 47%
UnitedDetails → GRR 15:37 → ORD 15:56UA 4597 · flown by GoJet 1h 01m Chicago ORD 16:57 → DCA 20:02UA 2761 4h 25m 65% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON