Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1561 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1561 GRR 07:01 → DFW 08:48 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 310 GRR 17:23 → DFW 19:11 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1561 American Flight history →	GRR 07:01	DFW 08:48	17%	6%	1.0%	76%
AA 3167 American Flight history →	GRR 13:16	DFW 15:02	27%	8%	1.0%	73%
AA 310 American Flight history →	GRR 17:23	DFW 19:11	33%	11%	1.8%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON