Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 3718 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 3718 GRR 06:05 → EWR 08:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 3625 GRR 16:56 → EWR 18:58 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3718 United flown by Republic Flight history →	GRR 06:05	EWR 08:00	7%	3%	3.3%	88%
UA 3557 United flown by Republic Flight history →	GRR 12:05	EWR 14:00	20%	8%	2.4%	85%
UA 3625 United flown by Republic Flight history →	GRR 16:56	EWR 18:58	33%	12%	2.1%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON