tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 6013 at 06:49, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 6013 SkyWest GRR 06:49 IAH 08:39 9% 6% 0.9% no record
UA 4036 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record GRR 17:07 IAH 19:10 32% 13% 0.0% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Grand Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → GRR 06:00 → ORD 06:17UA 4458 · flown by GoJet 1h 18m Chicago ORD 07:35 → IAH 10:36UA 1231 5h 36m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → GRR 07:00 → MSP 07:32DL 2913 2h 52m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673 7h 14m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → GRR 06:10 → ATL 08:14DL 2453 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682 6h 04m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → GRR 08:49 → ORD 08:57UA 1113 3h 43m Chicago ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:40UA 1448 7h 51m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → GRR 07:53 → ATL 09:56DL 2161 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 6h 40m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → GRR 08:00 → DEN 08:54UA 2648 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 8h 09m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → GRR 11:34 → MSP 12:14DL 3990 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644 7h 05m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → GRR 05:30 → DTW 06:30DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor 2h 10m Detroit DTW 08:40 → IAH 10:37DL 1043 6h 07m 95% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → GRR 16:56 → EWR 18:58UA 3625 · flown by Republic 53m Newark EWR 19:51 → IAH 22:23UA 2127 6h 27m 66% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON