Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 5760 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day YX 5760 GRR 05:59 → LGA 08:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4498 GRR 13:07 → LGA 15:19 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5760 Republic	GRR 05:59	LGA 08:10	6%	3%	3.8%	no record
YX 5712 Republic	GRR 11:39	LGA 13:50	16%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 4498 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GRR 13:07	LGA 15:19	19%	8%	1.7%	88%
DL 5104 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GRR 17:56	LGA 20:00	33%	12%	10.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON