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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GRR 06:10 → ATL 08:14DL 2453 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658 4h 47m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → GRR 05:55 → DTW 06:56DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor 1h 49m Detroit DTW 08:45 → MCO 11:23DL 1455 5h 28m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → GRR 07:00 → MSP 07:32DL 2913 1h 55m Minneapolis MSP 09:27 → MCO 13:40DL 1208 6h 40m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → GRR 07:10 → ORD 07:19UA 2099 2h 23m Chicago ORD 09:42 → MCO 13:34UA 1643 6h 24m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → GRR 07:53 → ATL 09:56DL 2161 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030 5h 07m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → GRR 06:05 → EWR 08:00UA 3718 · flown by Republic 3h 10m Newark EWR 11:10 → MCO 14:03UA 2396 7h 58m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → GRR 08:49 → ORD 08:57UA 1113 2h 03m Chicago ORD 11:00 → MCO 15:03UA 2008 6h 14m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → GRR 06:38 → DFW 08:21AA 1561 2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:58 → MCO 14:45AA 2151 8h 07m 97% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON