Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OO 5674 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–36%.

Safest bet that day OO 5674 GRR 05:04 → ORD 05:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5516 GRR 18:14 → ORD 18:21 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5674 SkyWest	GRR 05:04	ORD 05:10	8%	6%	1.8%	no record
OO 4778 SkyWest	GRR 05:47	ORD 05:53	8%	6%	1.6%	no record
MQ 3481 Envoy	GRR 05:44	ORD 05:46	9%	5%	2.2%	no record
AA 2386 American	GRR 07:14	ORD 07:25	14%	5%	1.9%	no record
UA 2099 United Flight history →	GRR 07:10	ORD 07:19	17%	5%	0.9%	71%
UA 1113 United Flight history →	GRR 08:49	ORD 08:57	17%	5%	0.8%	72%
OO 6365 SkyWest	GRR 10:34	ORD 10:40	18%	8%	1.6%	no record
OO 5709 SkyWest	GRR 09:52	ORD 09:58	20%	8%	1.7%	no record
OO 5329 SkyWest	GRR 12:01	ORD 12:07	22%	7%	1.3%	no record
YX 4780 Republic	GRR 14:44	ORD 14:56	26%	7%	3.1%	no record
UA 2783 United	GRR 15:45	ORD 15:53	29%	9%	1.0%	no record
UA 2138 United Flight history →	GRR 13:56	ORD 14:05	30%	8%	0.9%	70%
MQ 3455 Envoy	GRR 16:09	ORD 16:11	31%	9%	2.9%	no record
UA 5516 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GRR 18:14	ORD 18:21	36%	13%	4.0%	51%
UA 4458 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	GRR 06:00	ORD 06:17	8%	0%	0.0%	92%
UA 4583 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	GRR 11:38	ORD 11:58	27%	12%	2.2%	73%
UA 4597 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	GRR 15:37	ORD 15:56	36%	12%	7.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON