Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OH 5310 PSA	GRR 07:27	PHL 09:31	13%	5%	1.5%	no record
AA 5614 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GRR 13:45	PHL 15:44	18%	8%	1.2%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GRR 07:00 → MSP 07:32DL 2913	3h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679	7h 43m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	GRR 06:10 → ATL 08:14DL 2453	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:32 → PHL 13:43DL 8885	7h 33m	100%	88%
United Details →	GRR 06:00 → ORD 06:17UA 4458 · flown by GoJet	3h 17m Chicago	ORD 09:34 → PHL 12:48UA 729	6h 48m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	GRR 11:34 → MSP 12:14DL 3990 · flown by SkyWest	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → PHL 18:04DL 2594	6h 30m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	GRR 05:30 → DTW 06:30DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor	3h 40m Detroit	DTW 10:10 → PHL 11:46DL 2331	6h 16m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	GRR 07:53 → ATL 09:56DL 2161	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	5h 31m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	GRR 10:34 → DTW 11:33DL 3500 · flown by SkyWest	3h 27m Detroit	DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391	6h 09m	98%	81%
United Details →	GRR 08:49 → ORD 08:57UA 1113	2h 36m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	5h 58m	95%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON