Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1078 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1078 GSO 06:13 → CLT 07:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest MQ 3942 GSO 19:09 → CLT 19:59 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 1078 American Flight history →	GSO 06:13	CLT 07:12	11%	4%	0.7%	89%
AA 3965 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 08:52	CLT 09:53	13%	3%	0.7%	96%
AA 3133 American	GSO 17:28	CLT 18:39	23%	11%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3942 Envoy	GSO 19:09	CLT 19:59	25%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 5793 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 09:00	CLT 10:21	8%	1%	0.0%	92%
AA 5796 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 12:42	CLT 13:49	10%	4%	0.0%	90%
AA 5797 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 16:11	CLT 17:20	30%	13%	0.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON