tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4783 at 10:40 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4783 Republic GSO 10:40 DCA 12:04 16% 4% 0.9% no record
OH 5140 PSA GSO 19:24 DCA 20:39 31% 17% 2.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GSO 05:25 → ATL 06:38DL 3018 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 6h 02m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → GSO 06:13 → CLT 07:12AA 1078 2h 16m Charlotte CLT 09:28 → DCA 11:13AA 3043 5h 00m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → GSO 06:35 → ATL 07:56DL 3004 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:47DL 1798 6h 12m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → GSO 06:00 → DTW 07:45DL 5088 · flown by Endeavor 2h 15m Detroit DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476 5h 28m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → GSO 07:20 → ORD 08:30AA 3673 · flown by Envoy 2h 06m Chicago ORD 10:36 → DCA 13:45AA 1200 6h 25m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → GSO 16:11 → CLT 17:20AA 5797 · flown by Piedmont 3h 17m Charlotte CLT 20:37 → DCA 22:24AA 2432 6h 13m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → GSO 10:14 → ATL 11:31DL 3173 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360 4h 42m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → GSO 12:26 → ATL 13:50DL 3052 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950 6h 11m 100% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON