Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, YX 3445 at 19:01, with a 36% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3445 GSO 19:01 → EWR 20:51 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3445 Republic	GSO 19:01	EWR 20:51	36%	13%	1.0%	no record
UA 4580 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 06:00	EWR 07:42	8%	3%	1.7%	92%
UA 4608 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 14:33	EWR 16:17	14%	11%	12.5%	86%
UA 4514 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 20:10	EWR 21:57	48%	30%	14.8%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON