tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4251 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history → GSO 06:01 IAD 07:23 6% 2% 0.8% 91%
UA 4819 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history → GSO 14:59 IAD 16:38 15% 4% 0.9% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GSO 06:35 → ATL 07:56DL 3004 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → IAD 13:05DL 8965 6h 30m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → GSO 05:25 → ATL 06:38DL 3018 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 07:43 → IAD 09:26DL 1324 4h 01m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → GSO 10:14 → ATL 11:31DL 3173 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 14:34 → IAD 16:30DL 1695 6h 16m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → GSO 08:14 → ATL 09:37DL 1085 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 5h 47m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → GSO 12:26 → ATL 13:50DL 3052 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902 6h 04m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → GSO 07:01 → DFW 08:56AA 2846 1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:26 → IAD 14:40AA 524 7h 39m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → GSO 14:59 → ATL 16:20DL 3060 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 19:57 → IAD 21:53DL 1309 6h 54m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → GSO 11:21 → DTW 13:02DL 4966 · flown by Endeavor 2h 06m Detroit DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787 5h 20m 98% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON