Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 3640 at 07:02, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3640 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 07:02	MIA 09:10	8%	3%	2.3%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GSO 05:25 → ATL 06:38DL 3018	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 32m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	GSO 06:35 → ATL 07:56DL 3004	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 27m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	GSO 06:25 → DTW 08:06DL 5088 · flown by Endeavor	1h 16m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	6h 03m	96%	85%
United Details →	GSO 06:01 → IAD 07:23UA 4251 · flown by CommuteAir	55m Dulles	IAD 08:18 → MIA 11:15UA 1073	5h 14m	92%	84%
American Details →	GSO 06:13 → CLT 07:12AA 1078	3h 50m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 58m	99%	83%
American Details →	GSO 07:20 → ORD 08:30AA 3673 · flown by Envoy	1h 36m Chicago	ORD 10:06 → MIA 14:10AA 2689	6h 50m	95%	79%
American Details →	GSO 07:01 → DFW 08:56AA 2846	1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:24 → MIA 14:24AA 1454	7h 23m	98%	77%
American Details →	GSO 08:52 → CLT 09:53AA 3965 · flown by Envoy	3h 36m Charlotte	CLT 13:29 → MIA 15:36AA 1198	6h 44m	100%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON