Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3028 GSP 05:44 → ATL 06:43 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest DL 3095 GSP 17:16 → ATL 18:22 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3028 Delta Flight history →	GSP 05:44	ATL 06:43	4%	2%	0.6%	98%
DL 1146 Delta Flight history →	GSP 06:45	ATL 07:48	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 3089 Delta Flight history →	GSP 10:03	ATL 11:04	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 2158 Delta Flight history →	GSP 11:42	ATL 12:45	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1619 Delta Flight history →	GSP 08:52	ATL 09:58	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1725 Delta Flight history →	GSP 13:09	ATL 14:14	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 1273 Delta Flight history →	GSP 15:06	ATL 16:13	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 3095 Delta Flight history →	GSP 17:16	ATL 18:22	13%	3%	0.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON