Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 13:09, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2864 United	GSP 16:25	DEN 17:45	15%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Greenville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GSP 05:44 → ATL 06:43DL 3028	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995	7h 21m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	GSP 07:10 → DTW 08:57DL 876	3h 45m Detroit	DTW 12:42 → DEN 13:45DL 1648	8h 35m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	GSP 08:52 → ATL 09:58DL 1619	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	7h 08m	99%	86%
United Details →	GSP 07:00 → IAH 08:33UA 4049 · flown by Mesa	1h 59m Houston	IAH 10:32 → DEN 11:59UA 2787	6h 59m	97%	85%
United Details →	GSP 10:30 → IAD 12:08UA 4958 · flown by CommuteAir	2h 27m Dulles	IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126	7h 59m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	GSP 10:03 → ATL 11:04DL 3089	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	6h 55m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	GSP 11:42 → ATL 12:45DL 2158	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	8h 14m	100%	83%
American Details →	GSP 07:00 → CLT 08:16AA 5654 · flown by PSA	2h 35m Charlotte	CLT 10:51 → DEN 12:26AA 1662	7h 26m	96%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	GSP 15:31 → LGA 17:35DL 5463 · flown by Endeavor	1h 15m New York	LGA 18:50 → DEN 21:35DL 710	8h 04m	74%	52%
Delta Details →	GSP 18:55 → DTW 20:48DL 5090 · flown by Endeavor	48m Detroit	DTW 21:36 → DEN 22:44DL 1644	5h 49m	58%	49%
American Details →	GSP 14:29 → PHL 16:29AA 6132 · flown by Piedmont	1h 01m Philadelphia	PHL 17:30 → DEN 19:45AA 3158	7h 16m	67%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON