Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1254 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 1254 GSP 07:01 → DFW 08:44 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1805 GSP 17:20 → DFW 18:55 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1254 American Flight history →	GSP 07:01	DFW 08:44	14%	4%	1.0%	81%
AA 3986 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 13:40	DFW 15:22	17%	4%	0.8%	81%
MQ 3483 Envoy	GSP 19:50	DFW 21:23	25%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1805 American Flight history →	GSP 17:20	DFW 18:55	29%	8%	0.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON