Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4578 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–34%.

Safest bet that day YX 4578 GSP 06:14 → LGA 08:26 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4534 GSP 17:55 → LGA 20:05 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4578 Republic	GSP 06:14	LGA 08:26	9%	4%	2.0%	no record
YX 4390 Republic	GSP 10:31	LGA 12:43	17%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 4534 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GSP 17:55	LGA 20:05	34%	16%	1.4%	70%
DL 5171 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 06:00	LGA 07:59	9%	5%	4.8%	91%
DL 4994 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 10:55	LGA 12:55	15%	7%	6.5%	85%
DL 5463 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 15:31	LGA 17:35	32%	18%	5.4%	68%
DL 5004 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 18:10	LGA 20:11	37%	19%	9.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON