tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 3806 at 06:30, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3806 American flown by Envoy Flight history → GSP 06:30 MIA 08:26 13% 5% 0.9% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GSP 05:44 → ATL 06:43DL 3028 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 5h 13m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → GSP 06:45 → ATL 07:48DL 1146 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 6h 17m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → GSP 07:00 → CLT 08:16AA 5654 · flown by PSA 2h 46m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 6h 11m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → GSP 06:35 → DCA 08:23AA 5031 · flown by PSA 1h 33m Washington DCA 09:56 → MIA 12:46AA 401 6h 11m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → GSP 17:16 → ATL 18:22DL 3095 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234 6h 23m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → GSP 08:52 → ATL 09:58DL 1619 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323 6h 39m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → GSP 10:03 → ATL 11:04DL 3089 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386 6h 52m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → GSP 09:00 → CLT 10:16AA 5381 · flown by PSA 3h 13m Charlotte CLT 13:29 → MIA 15:36AA 1198 6h 36m 96% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → GSP 09:00 → CLT 10:16AA 5381 · flown by PSA 46m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 4h 11m 72% 61%
AmericanDetails → GSP 07:00 → CLT 08:16AA 5654 · flown by PSA 46m Charlotte CLT 09:02 → MIA 11:08AA 3184 4h 08m 71% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON